🇲🇿 Mozambique

Mozambique is a southeastern African country of 33 million with a GDP of about $18 billion and a 2,500-km Indian Ocean coastline. The country has been transformed by the discovery of massive offshore natural gas reserves in the Rovuma Basin — estimated at 180 trillion cubic feet, enough to make Mozambique one of the world's top LNG exporters. But a jihadist insurgency in the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province has displaced over 1 million people and delayed the $20 billion TotalEnergies LNG project. Mozambique's "hidden debt" scandal — $2 billion in secret government-guaranteed loans revealed in 2016 — was one of Africa's biggest financial scandals.

Aluminum (from the Mozal smelter, one of Africa's largest), coal, natural gas, and agriculture (cashews, prawns, sugar) are the main exports. South Africa, India, and the Netherlands are the top trade partners. The gas projects, when fully operational, could triple GDP. The metical has been volatile, and inflation runs around 7-10%. About 70% of the population lives below the poverty line despite the resource wealth. The hidden debt scandal led to a cutoff of international aid that lasted years.

Mozambique's Bazaruto Archipelago is home to one of the last viable populations of dugongs in the Indian Ocean. The country's Gorongosa National Park, devastated during the civil war, has been restored through a remarkable public-private partnership and is now one of Africa's great conservation success stories. Mozambique's Island of Mozambique, a UNESCO site, was the capital of Portuguese East Africa and has architecture dating to the 16th century.

Mozambique's gas reserves could be transformative, but the insurgency and governance failures are massive obstacles. The gap between potential and reality is one of the widest in Africa.